ANZ gives pessimistic view on Vietnam's exports in 2012

CA - Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) has said that Vietnam's exports are under the downward trend due to decreasing demand in the world market.

Vietnam's export growth in the fourth quarter of 2011 decreased to 28.4 percent over the same period of 2010 from the level of 39.7 percent in the third quarter of 2011. This decline occurred in all sectors. In comparison with Q3 2010, the country's export growth was even down to 8.2 percent, indicating a year 2012 with full of challenges, especially in the context of decreasing demand in the world market and level off of goods prices.

In Q4 2011, Vietnam's rice export saw the strongest decline amongst the country's key export items. Crude oil saw a rise of only 29.2 percent year-on-year after hitting a record export growth of 119.7 percent in Q3 2011. Other export commodities saw diffidence in export growth. Exports of footwear and electronics products increased whereas apparel product export declined year-on-year.

Vietnam's exports to Asean countries surged sharply. However, Vietnam's exports to the US market declined and to EU market and China remained stable.

Due to the export price index of food decreased 12 percent, the common export price index posted a fall of 2 percent in Q4 2011 and in comparison with 2010, and the export price index of construction material item saw the lowest rise.

Regarding import segment, ANZ showed a decline in Q4 together with the decrease in construction and assembly industry sector.

In Q4 2011, Vietnam's import decreased 17.2 percent from the same period 2010 after soaring 28.6 percent in Q3 2011. Imports decreased in all areas. It is forecasted that imports will reach stability in 2012.

In the primary sectors, steel imports in Q4 2011 saw a decrease together with the decline in the construction field. The import value of the chemical and electricity industries also reduced. However, an exception was oil and gas. Crude oil imports rose 73.3 percent, compared with the rise of 53 percent in Q3 and the import quantity also increased 25.7 percent while in Q3 it decreased 2.5 percent.

Considering the origin, the import growth from Japan is forecasted to reach the lowest level this year, while imports from Korea would post the highest growth. Chinese goods will continue to account for the highest import rate of 28 percent in the country's total imported products.

The import price index decreased from 6.2 percent compared to Q3 due to the import price index of assembly materials declined 8 percent. However, for the whole year 2011, the import price index of food saw a year-on-year increase.